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By The Hollinger Team

Diana, Kellie, Dane, Drew and I have over 85 years of experience in Montana real estate, specializing in waterfront properties. Let’s see what we can find for you.

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People keep asking if it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market right now, and what on earth is the market even doing?

Instead of going on a hunch, I pulled two very different sets of numbers to see whether the data backed it up. It did, and the two sources line up almost perfectly.

The local signal: price cuts are outpacing new listings. The first number came straight from our MLS. A couple of weeks ago, I compared new listings to price reductions over the same stretch. That week brought 108 new listings and 143 price reductions. That caught my attention, so I ran it again this past week, and the pattern held: 87 new listings against 128 price reductions.

Both weeks landed in the same place, roughly 50% more price reductions than new homes hitting the market. On a day-to-day basis, I’ve been watching those reduction notices pile up, and now I have a way to put a number on what I was already sensing.

The national signal: far more sellers than buyers. The second number came from the national picture sourced from Redfin by Keeping Current Matters, and it tells the same story from a different angle. Current estimates show there are far more sellers active in the market than buyers, on the order of about 50% more people trying to sell than there are buyers shopping right now.

That’s a striking gap, and it mirrors what my local price-reduction data shows. When two independent measures, one hyperlocal and one national, point to the same imbalance, it’s worth paying attention.

“People keep asking if it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market right now, and what on earth is the market even doing? Instead of going on a hunch, I pulled two very different sets of numbers to see whether the data backed it up. It did, and the two sources line up almost perfectly. The local signal: price cuts are outpacing new listings. The first number came straight from our MLS. A couple of weeks ago, I compared new listings to price reductions over the same stretch. That week brought 108 new listings and 143 price reductions. That caught my attention, so I ran it again this past week, and the pattern held: 87 new listings against 128 price reductions. Both weeks landed in the same place, roughly 50% more price reductions than new homes hitting the market. On a day-to-day basis, I’ve been watching those reduction notices pile up, and now I have a way to put a number on what I was already sensing. The national signal: far more sellers than buyers. The second number came from the national picture sourced from Redfin by Keeping Current Matters, and it tells the same story from a different angle. Current estimates show there are far more sellers active in the market than buyers, on the order of about 50% more people trying to sell than there are buyers shopping right now. That’s a striking gap, and it mirrors what my local price-reduction data shows. When two independent measures, one hyperlocal and one national, point to the same imbalance, it’s worth paying attention.”

Where this gap came from. To me, this is partly a hangover from the early-2020s frenzy. Many sellers wanted to ride that pandemic-era roller coaster as high as it would go. If you look at when seller and buyer lines started to separate, the gap really began opening around 2022 and has widened into this year. The price reductions we’re seeing now are largely sellers discovering the roller coaster may no longer be climbing.

So where do prices go from here? This one’s reassuring. I don’t read this as the start of a ride down. It looks much more like a plateau, the roller coaster gliding along at this level for a while rather than plunging. And the gap between sellers and buyers isn’t actually widening right now. If anything, it’s closing slightly. If and when it closes further, we might see values start to tick up again. For now, though, the picture is steady, not falling, and sellers need to be realistic about pricing to meet today’s buyers.

If you’d like to talk through what all of this means for your specific situation, whether you’re thinking about selling, buying, or just trying to time things well here around Flathead Lake, I’m always happy to help. Call or text me at 1-406-837-5531, email me at ScottHollingerMT@gmail.com, or visit flatheadrealestate.com. Let’s figure out your next move together.

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